Simpson’s Paradox Mixing Lab

This interactive lab uses two surgeons as the running example. The within-group success rates are fixed in the block below. Use the sliders to choose the case mix for Surgeon A and Surgeon B, then watch whether a Simpson reversal appears after the patient groups are mixed.

80%
10%

Within each risk group

Surgeon A, low risk90%
Surgeon B, low risk80%
Surgeon A, high risk60%
Surgeon B, high risk50%

Surgeon A is better in both groups. This part never changes.

After mixing groups

Surgeon A overall66%
Surgeon B overall77%

The overall rates are weighted averages. Changing the group mix changes the weights, not the within-group success rates.